Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts Continue to Heat Up, BC Copper 2512 Contract Fluctuates and Closes Higher [SMM BC Copper Review]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2512 opened at 77,280 yuan/mt, touched a high of 77,730 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 76,850 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, copper prices gradually moved higher, finally settling at 77,200 yuan/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest decreased by 505 lots to 2,469 lots compared with the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 3,476 lots. On the macro front, the weaker-than-expected US September retail sales data strengthened market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index retreated from highs, providing support for copper prices. The market focused on the early release of US initial jobless claims data at 21:30 tonight. On the fundamentals, supply showed structural divergence, with high-quality copper supply remaining tight, while mainstream standard-quality copper supply was relatively ample. Demand side, approaching month-end, downstream purchasing sentiment recovered.

The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 settled at 86,560 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2512 contract price of 77,200 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 87,236 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2512 and BC copper was -676, maintaining an inverted spread which widened compared with the previous day.